1. Topic-
Experimental Probability & Simulations
 
2. Content-
Probability, Experimental Probability, Simulations, Experiment, Sample Space, Equally Likely, Modeling, Odds, Real-World, Sugary Tasty Squares
 
3. Goals: Aims/Outcomes-
1.To find the experimental probability of an event.
2.Use simulations.
3.Understand the likelihood of winning.
4. Create an infomercial either to support the contest or create a public service announcement for children to stay away from this type of contest.
 
4. Objectives-
1.Conduct an experiment
2.Collect data and share with other groups
3.Calculate the mean to determine the average number of cereal boxes needed to be purchased in order to win.
 
5. Materials and Aids-
Dice, spinners, pencil, paper, camera, props, online graphing tools.
 
6. Procedures/Methods-

A. Introduction-

I will walk into class with my favorite cereal, eating as I come in. As I take another bite I will find the letter inside. Then I will read aloud the task.

Sugary Tasty Squares is having a contest. To win a prize, you must collect six different cards that spell YOU WIN. One of the six letters is put into each cereal box. The letters are divided equally among the boxes.

Again, I will show my excitement and that I have one of the letters! Am I really that close to winning? Should I run out and buy 5 more boxes of Sugary Tasty Squares right now?
 

B. Development-

All students do a short writing to answer the following questions. There is no wrong answer. However, I am looking for good use of math vocabulary.

1. Is it going to be easy for me to win?
2.How many boxes of Sugary Tasty Squares do you think I will have to buy to collect all six cards?
 

C. Practice-

During the practice time, students will be working on their writing. When everyone is finished I will select a few writing to share. Afterwards, students will be given a paper with the contest rules on it. Then they will move on to the independent practice activity.
 

D. Independent Practice-

1.Students will determine what tool they will use to assist them (6-sided number cube or spinner)
2.Begin their experiment.
3.Keep track of each roll and the results until the desired outcome is reached.
4. How many boxes of cereal do you think you would have to buy to get all six letters? If you bought this many boxes, would you be sure to win?
 

E. Accommodations (Differentiated Instruction)-

1. I could change the word from "YOU WIN" to something shorter like "YES"
2.I could partner students strategically.
 

F. Checking for understanding-

To check for understanding, I will give students another writing task.The students all created a simulation similar to yours. After they rolled the number cube 7 times, they rolled, 4, 2, 5, 6, 3, 4, 2, 4, 5, 2, 1.
a.) Could they win the prize?
b.) Are their results encouragement enough to rush out and purchase a bunch of boxes of Sugary Tasty Squares?
 

G. Closure-

I will read the "small print" to the students so they can hear how likely it is to win this contest.
 

This Lesson Plan is available at (www.teacherjet.com)